Friedrich Merz’s emerge by Sabine Fischer

Germany stands at a crossroads, and in many ways, so does Europe. The leadership vacuum left by Angela Merkel remains unfilled, and the nation is grappling with an uninspiring Scholz chancellorship that has failed to meet expectations. As the Christian Democrats (CDU) attempt to stage a comeback, their current leader, Friedrich Merz, positions himself as the heir to Merkel’s legacy. However, this comparison is not only flawed but deeply misleading. If anything, Merz threatens to be even worse than Olaf Scholz, and his political fate rests uneasily on two major external forces: the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.

Merz, a longtime political rival of Merkel, lacks her centrist pragmatism and broad appeal. Where Merkel was careful, measured, and consensus-driven, Merz is brash, ideological, and disconnected from modern German society. His attempts to reclaim the CDU from its Merkel-era moderation have resulted in a swing to the right, alienating many centrist voters who once found a political home under Merkel's big-tent conservatism.

Merkel understood that leadership required both vision and compromise. Her careful handling of crises, from the Eurozone collapse to the migrant crisis, ensured Germany remained a stable force in Europe. Merz, on the other hand, represents a regressive brand of conservatism, favoring a return to outdated economic policies, social rigidity, and a harsher stance on immigration. His economic views are rooted in the neoliberal orthodoxy of the early 2000s, which makes him out of touch with the pressing challenges of today, whether it be economic inequality, the energy transition, or digital modernization.

Olaf Scholz has been a disappointment, failing to project the stability and decisiveness that Merkel embodied. His slow responses to Germany’s energy crisis, economic stagnation, and the ongoing war in Ukraine have weakened confidence in his chancellorship. However, for all his shortcomings, Scholz still operates within the parameters of pragmatic governance. His Social Democratic-led coalition may be sluggish, but it is not reckless.

Merz, however, presents a different kind of risk. While Scholz’s faults stem from inaction and indecisiveness, Merz’s problems arise from misguided action. His rigid economic policies threaten to stifle social programs, his rhetoric on migration risks further dividing German society, and his outdated approach to European leadership could weaken Germany’s role as a unifying force in the EU. If elected chancellor, Merz could lead Germany down a more polarizing, unstable path—one that mirrors the mistakes of right-wing populists across Europe.

Merz’s political fate hinges on two major external factors: the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Donald Trump. Both represent unpredictable and destabilizing forces that could dramatically shape Germany’s future.

The AfD continues to rise in the polls, particularly in Eastern Germany, threatening the CDU’s traditional voter base. Merz has tried to distance himself from the far-right while simultaneously pandering to right-wing voters through tougher stances on immigration and security. This balancing act is unsustainable. The CDU’s dilemma is clear: embrace the AfD and lose centrist voters, or reject them and watch the far-right siphon away conservative support. Either path weakens Merz’s position, and his lack of clear strategy could prove disastrous for the CDU’s long-term future.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the specter of Donald Trump looms large. With Trump in the White House transatlantic relations are going to suffer another seismic shift, and the signs are already here. Merkel had the diplomatic skill to manage Trump’s unpredictability and maintain Germany’s global standing. Merz, however, lacks that finesse. His rigid ideology and outdated geopolitical instincts would make Germany more vulnerable to the consequences of Trump’s presidency. Germany needs a leader capable of handling these challenges with strategic intelligence, not a doctrinaire conservative unable to navigate a complex global landscape.

At a time when Germany needs steady, forward-thinking leadership, Merz offers only regression and division. He is neither Merkel’s true successor nor the leader Germany needs to move beyond the stagnation of the Scholz era. Instead, he represents a dangerous mix of ideological rigidity, political miscalculation, and weak strategic vision.

With the AfD threatening domestic stability and Trump casting a shadow over global affairs, Germany must choose its next leader wisely. Unfortunately, if Merz is that choice, the country may find itself in an even worse position than it is today, both at home and on the world stage.