With Donald Trump back in the White House, the geopolitical chessboard resets, but this time with an even more predictable script. Vladimir Putin now has the golden opportunity to dictate the terms of the so-called 'peace' in Ukraine, bending reality to fit his own imperialistic ambitions. If history has taught us anything, it is that Trump’s admiration for strongmen and his transactional approach to diplomacy pave the way for precisely the kind of ‘deal-making’ that favors the aggressor rather than the victim. And in this case, Putin holds all the cards, while Ukraine, bleeding and exhausted, finds itself at the mercy of an American president who once infamously declared that he trusted Putin more than his own intelligence agencies.
The Biden administration’s unwavering support for Ukraine, while imperfect and at times sluggish, at least offered a counterweight to Russia’s naked aggression. But now, with Trump in charge, all that changes. Trump has repeatedly signaled his impatience with supporting Ukraine, and his campaign rhetoric hinted at a swift deal with Putin, a deal that will likely involve forcing Kyiv into submission under the guise of ‘peace.’
Putin understands this all too well. His strategy has always been long-term, patient, and ruthlessly efficient. He knew that Western resolve would wane, that European unity would fracture, and that American political volatility would eventually serve him a golden opportunity. That opportunity has arrived. With a U.S. president in office who is openly skeptical of NATO, dismissive of European allies, and enamored with authoritarian figures, Putin can maneuver freely, shaping a post-war landscape that turns Ukraine into a model warning for all neighboring states.
When Trump and his team speak of ‘negotiating peace’ in Ukraine, what they really mean is an abeyance, an enforced silence where Ukraine is stripped of agency, forced to accept Russia’s terms while the West turns a blind eye. Any agreement reached under these conditions will be nothing more than a formalized surrender. Ukraine will be strong-armed into ceding territory, accepting neutrality under Russian oversight, and pledging never to integrate with Western institutions.
This is not a hypothetical scenario; it’s the natural conclusion of Trump’s worldview. His previous term saw him attempt to withhold military aid to Ukraine for his own political gain. His hostility toward NATO was not a performance; it was a deeply held belief. His disdain for alliances and preference for unilateral, one-man rule aligns perfectly with Putin’s modus operandi. The only difference is that Putin plays chess while Trump plays poker with a bad hand.
Putin’s grand bargain extends far beyond Ukraine. The spectacle of Kyiv’s enforced compliance will serve as a chilling lesson for Moldova, Georgia, and even the Baltics. The message is clear: resist Russia, and you will suffer the same fate as Ukraine, alone, abandoned, and ultimately carved up at the negotiation table. Meanwhile, European leaders, exhausted by war fatigue, economic strains, and their own internal political upheavals, will be inclined to prioritize ‘stability’ over principle. What was once unthinkable allowing Russia to dictate Europe’s security architecture, now inches closer to reality.
The Baltic states, having lived through Soviet oppression, will be the first to sound the alarm. But their warnings may fall on deaf ears in a world where Washington is more concerned with making ‘America First’ deals rather than standing up for democratic allies. Poland, long a staunch supporter of Ukraine, will find itself in an increasingly precarious position, realizing that its own security commitments might soon be undermined by an American president who sees alliances as business transactions rather than mutual obligations.
If Trump facilitates Putin’s desired outcome, Ukraine will be left in a state of permanent limbo, neither fully independent nor fully subjugated. Its sovereignty will exist on paper but not in practice. The Ukrainian people, having fought with unparalleled bravery against Russian invasion, will be handed a bitter betrayal: a settlement that rewards their aggressor and punishes their resilience.
For Putin, this is not just a military victory, it is the validation of his worldview. It will be proof that democracy, resistance, and Western unity are fragile illusions. And for Trump, it will be another deal to boast about, another headline to frame as a ‘win,’ regardless of the human cost.
Beyond Ukraine, this so-called peace will embolden autocrats worldwide. China will see in it a blueprint for Taiwan. Iran will recognize the diminished deterrence of the West. Rogue states will learn that endurance, manipulation, and a bit of luck can outlast even the strongest international coalitions.
Putin is playing for the long game, and Trump, whether knowingly or out of sheer ego-driven ignorance, is playing right into his hands. The question is not whether Ukraine will suffer under this arrangement, the suffering is already immense. The real question is whether the rest of the world will realize what’s happening before it’s too late. Because once Ukraine is shackled and silenced, the next target will already be in Putin’s sights.
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