The Moroccan warning by Solomon Mensah

Morocco has counted its votes and the arithmetic is remarkably clear even if the politics behind the numbers are considerably less comfortable. The Authenticity and Modernity Party, PAM, has emerged as the largest force in the new 395-seat House of Representatives with 97 seats. The National Rally of Independents follows with 66, Istiqlal with 65 and the Justice and Development Party with 54. The final figures confirmed by the Interior Ministry were unchanged from the preliminary results.

But 97 seats is not a mandate to rule alone. It is 97 seats in a parliament where fragmentation remains the political language. And that may be the most interesting message of this election. Because elections are not merely about who wins. Sometimes they are about who bothers to participate. Only about 38 percent of registered voters turned out. That is a brutal number for any political system that wants to present itself as a vibrant democratic conversation. Turnout had been 50.86 percent in 2021 and 42.27 percent in 2016. The decline is therefore not a statistical footnote; it is part of the story.

A parliament can be perfectly legitimate under the law and still confront a more uncomfortable question outside the law: how many citizens actually believe it matters?

That is the question Morocco's political establishment should be asking. PAM's victory is particularly significant because the party was created in 2008 by a figure close to the royal palace and has long been regarded as a political counterweight to the Islamist Justice and Development Party. Its rise therefore cannot simply be read as an ordinary European-style alternation between left and right, government and opposition. Morocco's political architecture is different, with the monarchy retaining a central role in national decision-making.

That makes the election's mathematics almost more interesting than its winner. PAM needs partners. Everybody needs partners. RNI, which dominated the outgoing governing arrangement, has been pushed into second place. Istiqlal is almost tied with it. And PJD, after collapsing to only 13 seats in 2021, has returned with 54.

That comeback should not be ignored. It demonstrates that political parties do not die merely because commentators declare them dead. Voters can bury a party one election and resurrect it the next. Politics has an irritating habit of refusing to follow the funeral arrangements.

And perhaps this is where Morocco's new parliament becomes genuinely interesting. The country is simultaneously presenting itself as a modernising economy, a regional power, a major investment destination and an increasingly important diplomatic actor while wrestling with problems that cannot be solved by glossy development statistics. Youth unemployment reached 37 percent in 2025, while concerns over jobs, wages, housing, education and healthcare remain central among younger Moroccans.

There is the Morocco of new infrastructure, foreign investment, tourism, football stadiums and preparations for the 2030 World Cup. And then there is the Morocco of the young person who cannot find a decent job. Those two Moroccos cannot be kept in separate rooms forever.

The government can build highways. It can attract factories. It can sell Morocco as a gateway between Africa and Europe. It can celebrate economic growth and international recognition. But eventually the citizen asks the most primitive question in politics: what does any of this do for me?

That question is particularly dangerous when nearly two-thirds of registered voters stay away from the ballot box. The Moroccan authorities emphasise that the election was conducted under normal conditions, with thousands of observers and mechanisms designed to protect the electoral process. The Interior Ministry reported 3,006 observers, including civil-society, national human-rights and foreign observers.

Those safeguards matter. But democracy is not merely the absence of ballot-box fraud. Democracy is also the presence of political belief. A citizen who votes because she believes her vote can change something is participating in democracy. A citizen who stays home because every party appears to be another variation of the same political furniture is expressing something too.

Silence has political meaning. The new Moroccan parliament therefore inherits something considerably heavier than a coalition puzzle. It inherits a credibility problem.

PAM may have won the numbers. The real challenge is winning attention, trust and participation. And those cannot be counted by the Interior Ministry. They have to be earned.

Morocco has built much of its modern political identity around stability. That stability has real value in a turbulent region. But stability without political renewal can eventually become stagnation, while political competition without public participation becomes theatre.

The danger is not that Morocco has too many political parties. The danger is that too many citizens may conclude that none of them matter. That is the warning hidden inside those 97 seats. The ballots have been counted. Now Morocco has to convince the people who stayed home that the next ballot is worth casting.


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