Game Theory and the Geopolitics of Force: How Israel’s Military Logic Shapes Global Repression and Occupation by Habib Siddiqui
In the early months of the Gaza war, Nobel Prize-winning economist Prof. Yisrael (Robert) Aumann sat down with two reporters in his Jerusalem home and offered a stark, calculated suggestion:“Israel must reoccupy the Gaza Strip and consider rebuilding Jewish communities in the coastal terror enclave if the country wants to prevent another October 7.”
Aumann, who shared the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics with Thomas Schelling for their pioneering work on Game theory, wasn’t speaking from ideology—but from strategy. He argued that Israel should establish a permanent military presence in Gaza and explore resettlement, much like it has done in the West Bank. To him, this wasn’t about revenge or expansionism—it was about incentives, deterrence, and credible commitment.
“We’ve been [in the West Bank] for 57 years and still have not annexed it,” Aumann said. “It’s not good. We should at least declare our legitimacy. But at least we are there physically. It is more difficult for us to pull out because of those people [living there]. That’s game theory.”
This provocative framing sets the stage for a deeper exploration of how game theory—a mathematical model of strategic decision-making—has moved from academic journals into the heart of modern military doctrine. In Israel’s case, it has become a guiding logic for pre-emptive strikes, covert operations, and long-term occupation strategies.
Game theory, at its core, is the study of strategic decision-making among rational actors. It models how players—whether nations, corporations, or individuals—make choices when the outcomes depend not only on their own actions but also on the anticipated responses of others.
While it gained prominence during the Cold War as a tool for nuclear deterrence, game theory has since evolved into a framework for understanding modern conflicts. It explains how states use pre-emptive strikes, strategic signaling, and deterrence to shape the behavior of adversaries. The logic is simple but powerful: if the cost of retaliation or escalation can be made prohibitively high, conflict can be deterred—or at least managed.
Israel’s Strategic Calculus: From Theory to Practice
In recent years, Israel’s military strategy—particularly its pre-emptive and often unprovoked strikes in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran—has increasingly reflected the principles of game theory. These are not merely tactical operations; they are strategic messages designed to shift the balance of power and influence future aggression.This approach, once confined to academic circles, now appears to underpin real-world military planning in volatile regions.
Military decisions are increasingly framed as cost-benefit analyses. Should the apartheid state of Israel allow Hezbollah to stockpile weapons in southern Lebanon, or risk international backlash by striking first? Should it tolerate Iranian entrenchment in Syria, or act preemptively to disrupt it? Should it tolerate Iran’s nuclear program or attack the country to kill its scientists and generals? Game theory provides a framework for weighing these options, especially in complex theaters where multiple actors—state and non-state—are involved.
To Israeli strategists, the region resembles a crowded chessboard. Every move is aimed at further solidifying Israel’s ever expansionist settlement policy and shaped not only by immediate adversaries but also by the strategic postures of global powers like the United States, Russia, and China. Game theory helps model these interdependent decisions, where each action reverberates across multiple players.
One of the most striking examples of this logic in action was Operation Grim Beeper, a covert Israeli operation that detonated thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies inside Lebanon and Syria. The attack—undeniably an act of terrorism—claimed the lives of over 42 individuals and injured more than 4,000, including Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon and numerous civilians. Widely regarded as one of the most sophisticated covert operations in the Israel–Hezbollah conflict, it marked a significant escalation in electronic warfare and embedded sabotage.
As one panel of game theory experts noted in the aftermath:“Wars—managing and preventing them—are essentially games of prediction. Each side needs to anticipate how the other will react and weigh its costs and benefits.”
The devices were initially traced to Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo, reportedly licensed by Hungarian firm BAC Consulting and distributed via Norta Global Ltd, a Bulgarian company founded by Rinson Jose, a Norwegian-Indian national. Jose, who is currently missing, was last seen in Boston around the time of the explosions.
Well, such Indian connections with Israeli crimes are not surprising any longer.
India and Israel: A Strategic Convergence
India’s growing alignment with Israel—both ideologically and militarily—has further globalized this game-theoretic approach to conflict. Both countries are led by right-wing nationalist governments—Zionism in Israel and Hindutva in India. This ideological alignment has fostered a deepening military and strategic partnership, particularly since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014.
India has deployed Israeli drones such as the Heron, Hermes 900, and Harop in Kashmir and along the Pakistan border. The Harop, a loitering munition or “suicide drone,” was reportedly used in Operation Sindoor in Kashmir in 2025.
Israeli crowd-control technologies—tear gas drones, facial recognition, and surveillance systems—have been adapted for use during the farmer protests, anti-CAA demonstrations, and anti-Muslim crackdowns in Kashmir.
India is now Israel’s largest arms buyer, accounting for 37% of Israeli arms exports. The relationship has evolved from simple procurement to co-development, with Indian firms like Adani-Elbit and Munitions India producing Israeli-designed weapons, which were used by India in her latest attacks against Pakistan.
India’s support for Israel has also grown during the ongoing genocide in Gaza.Indians have participated in Israel’s genocidal war. Her companies have emerged as key actors in ammunitiontrade. Fragments of a missile marked “Made in India” were found in the ruins of a bombed UN shelter in the Nuseirat refugee camp.
In May 2024, Spain denied docking rights to the Marianne Danica ship carrying 27 tons of explosives bound for Haifa, a port city in Israel. The cargo had originated in Chennai, India.
The incident underlined India’s role not just as a buyer but also as a supplier of arms.
More problematically, in recent years, India has been adopting Israeli doctrines of pre-emptive strikes, home demolitions, bulldozer justice, targeted assassinations, and population control—especially in Kashmir and other restive regions. The normalization of surveillance and militarized policing in civilian areas mirrors Israeli practices in the Occupied West Bank and Gaza.
As Azad Essa, author of Hostile Homelands: The New Alliance Between India and Israel, notes, “The nonstop drone noise reminds Kashmiris they’re being watched constantly. One wrong move, and they could be killed.”
For India’s anti-Muslim, right-wing Hindutvadi government, Israel is more than a supplier; it’s a model: a state that has institutionalized occupation and normalized apartheid.
Summary Table: Strategic Parallels
| Feature | Israel | India (under BJP) |
| Surveillance Drones | Heron, Hermes | Deployed in Kashmir |
| Loitering Munitions | Harop | Used in Operation Sindoor |
| Crowd Control | Tear gas drones, facial recognition | Used in protests & Kashmir |
| Strategic Doctrine | Pre-emptive strikes, deterrence | Adopted in border & internal conflicts |
As the pariah state of Israel continues to refine its military strategies through the lens of game theory, its influence is increasingly visible in the tactics of other criminal and authoritarian-leaning governments. The convergence of ideology, technology, and strategic logic is reshaping how state violence is rationalized—and exported—across borders.
Dr. Siddiqui, a peace and rights activist, has successfully deployed operational excellence initiatives for four major multi-national corporations.
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